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Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Pre-revenue with Q4 2024 net loss of $40.7M and cash consumption of $39.9M; FY2024 cash consumption of $141.2M at the low end of guidance ($130–$170M) and year-end total liquidity of $428.6M supported by $270M raised in 2024 .
  • Backlog normalized to ~2.8K LOIs (28 customers, 9 countries), diversified by customer type and geography; Vector software at 21 customers and TechCare services agreements with 14 customers (potential $1.6B services revenue) .
  • 2025 guidance calls for total cash consumption of $200–$250M, mid-2025 first flight of full-scale engineering prototype, and production of 5 certification-conforming prototypes; facility customization estimated at $80–$90M while CFO frames total facility CapEx at ~$100M (multi-year) .
  • Near-term stock narrative catalysts: mid-2025 first flight, certification plan alignment with ANAC/FAA, facility build-out, and potential LOI conversions triggering PDP cash inflows; management indicates liquidity sufficient for operations through 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Completed assembly of first full-scale prototype and advanced ground testing; management reiterated mid-2025 target for first flight (“We expect to fly our full-scale engineering prototype for the first time by mid-2025.”) .
  • Regulatory milestones: ANAC published Basis of Certification for Eve’s eVTOL; FAA issued SFAR supportive of single-control eVTOLs and streamlined pilot training .
  • Strengthened liquidity: raised $270M in 2024 via equity and credit lines/loans, enabling $428.6M total liquidity at year-end and confidence to fund operations and R&D through 2026 (“Our total liquidity of $430 million… enough to sustain our operations at least for 2025 and 2026.”) .

What Went Wrong

  • Order book attrition: backlog declined from ~2.9K (Q3) to ~2.8K (Q4) LOIs; CEO cited customer-specific factors (e.g., acquisitions, bankruptcies) while emphasizing focus on core launch customers .
  • Elevated quarterly cash burn: Q4 cash consumption rose to $39.9M vs. $24.5M in Q4 2023 on intensified R&D and supplier payments; SG&A was stable but pre-operating costs for Taubaté increased .
  • Continued non-revenue status and net losses: pre-revenue by design during aircraft development; FY2024 net loss $138.2M with 2025 spend expected to rise to $200–$250M, largely for engineering and prototype production .

Financial Results

Key P&L and Cash Metrics

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$36.4 $35.8 $40.7
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$36.3 $32.4 $33.7
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$5.4 $8.4 $6.2
Free Cash Flow / Cash Consumption ($USD Millions)$31.4 $34.0 $39.9
Net Loss per Share (Basic/Diluted, $)N/A-$0.12 N/A

Notes:

  • Eve is pre-revenue during the development phase .
  • Q4 EPS per share was not disclosed in the press release/8-K exhibit .

Backlog and Customer/Geography Mix KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
eVTOL LOIs (units)~2.9K ~2.9K ~2.8K
Customers (count)30 30 28
Customer mix (% fixed-wing / helicopter / lessors / ride-share)39 / 27 / 17 / 12 39 / 27 / 17 / 12 40 / 27 / 17 / 11
Geography mix (% NA / SA / Europe / Asia)46 / 17 / 18 / 9 46 / 17 / 18 / 9 47 / 18 / 16 / 9
Vector customers (count)16 23 21
TechCare customers (count)12 15 14
TechCare potential revenue ($USD Billions)$1.2 $1.6 $1.6

Cash and Liquidity

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash, Cash Equivalents, Fin. Investments, Related party loan ($USD Millions)$206.5 $279.8 $303.4
Total Liquidity ($USD Millions)$338.0 (pro forma) $305.2 $428.6
BNDES drawn / available ($USD Millions)$38 available (as-of Q2) $25.3 undrawn (as-of Q3) $83.6 drawn; $125.2 available (as-of FY-end)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Cash ConsumptionFY2024$130–$170M $141.2M actual Maintained and achieved
Total Cash ConsumptionFY2025N/A$200–$250M New (higher vs 2024)
First flight (engineering prototype)Timing“Later this year” (post-Q2) Mid-2025 Pushed
Certification-conforming prototypes2025–20265 (option for 6) 5 planned Maintained
Taubaté facility customizationMulti-year$80–$90M estimate ~$100M total facility CapEx (CFO) Raised (scope broadened)
Liquidity runwayMulti-yearInto 2027 (post-raise view) Sufficient through 2026 Tightened/clarified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Prototype testing & first flightQ2: rollout complete; tests later in 2024 Mid-2025 first flight; hover → partial → full transition plan Timeline extended; scope detailed
Certification (ANAC/FAA)Q2: ANAC basis pending public process ANAC Basis published; FAA SFAR issued; harmonization efforts ongoing Regulatory progress
Order book dynamicsQ2/Q3: ~2.9K LOIs; 30 customers ~2.8K LOIs; 28 customers; attrition explained Slight normalization; diversified base
Cash burn & liquidityQ2: pro forma liquidity ~$340M; into 2027 Q4: $428.6M liquidity; FY2025 burn $200–$250M; through 2026 Higher spend; stronger liquidity
Facility CapExQ3: customization $80–$90M CFO: total facility CapEx ~$100M; $30M in 2025 Scope refined; phased spend
Services/VectorQ2: TechCare $1.2B; Vector 16 customers TechCare $1.6B; Vector 21 customers Expanded customer traction

Management Commentary

  • “We expect to fly our full-scale engineering prototype for the first time by mid-2025.” – CEO Johann Bordais .
  • “We raised $270 million… which allows the company to have a solid liquidity position to continue funding… R&D… and our… manufacturing facility.” – CEO Johann Bordais .
  • “Our total liquidity of $430 million… is enough to sustain our operations at least for 2025 and 2026.” – CFO Eduardo Couto .
  • “On November 1, 2024, ANAC published the Basis of Certification for Eve’s eVTOL… [and] the FAA issued the SFAR… supportive of our design.” – Company .
  • “Eve’s order pipeline totals approximately 2.8K units… diversified by customer type and geography.” – Company .

Q&A Highlights

  • Cash burn cadence: 2025 spend guided to $200–$250M, heavily R&D/engineering; ~$30M of facility CapEx in 2025; majority of ~$100M facility CapEx in 2026 .
  • Order book changes: LOIs declined ~100 units; management cited customer-specific events (e.g., acquisition/bankruptcy) and reinforced focus on core launch customers .
  • Prototypes & certification: plan to use 5 certification-conforming prototypes; engineering prototype is simplified/unmanned and not for certification compliance .
  • TechCare commercialization: active customer engagement for spare parts, flight-hour programs, training; Eve to be “face to the customer” leveraging Embraer’s network .
  • Infrastructure ecosystem: partnerships (e.g., Signature Aviation MoU; BNDES funding; Revo simulation) to scale vertiport/ATM readiness .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2–Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were unavailable at the time of request due to data access limits; as a result, estimate comparisons are omitted. Where consensus is required for future updates, we will default to S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term milestone risk: the mid-2025 first-flight timeline is pivotal; successful hover/transition testing should de-risk certification and serve as a stock catalyst .
  • Spend trajectory: 2025 cash consumption step-up ($200–$250M) primarily R&D and prototype manufacturing; watch quarterly cadence and FX tailwinds given BRL exposure .
  • Liquidity runway: $428.6M at FY-end and funding sources (BNDES/Citi PP&E and R&D lines) support operations through 2026; monitor PDP timing from LOI conversions .
  • Backlog quality over quantity: slight LOI attrition but diversified mix and services pull-through (TechCare ~$1.6B potential; Vector 21 customers) reinforce multi-revenue architecture at EiS .
  • Facility execution: Taubaté build-out and tooling are critical for 480 units/year modular capacity; CapEx plan refined (~$100M total) with phased investment .
  • Regulatory pathway clarity: ANAC Basis and FAA SFAR enhance certification visibility; harmonization efforts with global authorities continue .
  • Trading setup: stock should be sensitive to flight-test updates, certification milestones, facility financing draws, and any LOI-to-firm order conversions (with PDPs) .

Additional Q4 2024 Press Releases and Updates

  • BNDES: Additional $35M Climate Fund line for conforming prototypes/testing processes (Dec 2, 2024) .
  • Helicopters Inc.: LOI for up to 50 eVTOLs plus TechCare and Vector (Dec 4, 2024) .
  • Signature Aviation: MoU to research AAM ground ops; LOI for Vector (Dec 11, 2024) .
  • JetSetGo: Agreement to explore Urban ATM in India; adds 14th Vector customer (Jan 21, 2025) .
  • ANAC regulatory sandbox: collaboration with VertiMob and PRS Aeroportos for vertiports (Feb 4, 2025) .

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